褚自航 2020-03-19 08:50








作者:瑞达利欧 桥水联席首席投资官,联席主席


我们现在正处在一个历史上的非常时期,在这个时期,有关冠状病毒对健康、经济和市场影响的现实情况过于糟糕,以至于准确地去传递这些影响可能会引发恐慌。一些处于知道真相位置的领导人及博学的的研究者们倾向于隐瞒事实,以防止恐慌。这样做的缺点是,当在这个他们本该把自身信誉放在第一位的时期,他们的信誉会受到损害。由于错误的信息,普罗大众也没能做他们本应该做的准备。我认为他们(知道真相的领导人和研究者们)应该披露,这个机会错过了(I think that’s a close call的我翻译的可能不准确。)






届时,各国央行将不得不决定是让利率上升,还是发行大量资金购买这些债券。由于他们面临这种两难选择,他们将别无选择的继续印钞票,购买大量政府债务,以像战争年代那样压低利率。所以现在所有的目光都集中在央行身上,看他们是否会这么做。这也是我之前提到的重大范式转移。(我来科普下: 所谓“范式转移”,是指一个领域里出现新的学术成果,打破了原有的假设或者法则,从而迫使人们对本学科的很多基本理论做出根本性的修正。)


How Do You Know What’s True? Facts, Rumors and Panics

· Published on March19, 2020

Ray Dalio Influencer

Co-ChiefInvestment Officer & Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, L.P.

We are now in one of thosetimes in which the realities of the situation about the health, economic, andmarket impacts of the coronavirus are so bad that conveying them accuratelycould provoke panic. Some leaders and knowledgeable researchers who are in theposition to know are inclined to withhold the facts to prevent that panic. Thedownside of doing that is that it will undermine their credibility at a timewhen them having credibility is most important and people will not do thepreparation that they should do because of the misinformation. While I thinkthey should make the disclosures, I think that’s a close call.

In other cases, some peoplehold back bad facts about themselves because the bad facts about them wouldlead others to run from them. Like the other reason to hold back facts, that isboth understandable and undermines credibility when it is needed most andprevents people from taking appropriate actions in light of the situation. It’sworse than policymakers who are trying to prevent general panic because it putstheir self-interests ahead of the interest of others that they are in aposition which should require others protections ahead of their own. It toocontributes to not knowing what’s true.

Then we have rumormongers whotry to incite panic for their own benefits. They range from individuals onsocial media to writers for prominent publications who feed sensationalism.They are the worst of the worse and should be punished severely.

As a result people ofoperating in this way, it is nearly impossible to know what is true.

As for my communication withyou, I promise that I always communicate with you in a totally straightforwardway. I will share what I know and think freely even though there are personalrisks of my doing that. While I will make mistakes, I will always betrustworthy. That doesn’t not mean that I will discuss everything here onsocial media. For example, I will not disclose anything about Bridgewater’srelationships with our clients and our positions in the markets. But you shouldknow that if I say something, you can believe that it’s true.

As for what I think now, Ibelieve that the health, economic, and market impact of the coronavirus will bemuch greater than most people are now conveying. For example, the profit lossesfor businesses are likely to be many trillions of dollars so that governmentsprotecting just the companies would cost a significant percentage of thatamount of money. Additionally, the amount of money to protect just thoseindividuals who will be devastated by the virus will also be enormous. To dothat, fiscal policymakers (I.e., heads of state and legislators) will have tocreate massive amounts of spending and distributions of money that will bedistributed as “helicopter money.” That is happening now in many ways such asPresident Trump’s $1,000 checks to people. Where will that money come from? Thefiscal policymakers don’t have that money because they don’t create it (thecentral banks create it), so they will have to borrow that enormous amount ofmoney at a time when lenders don’t have much money to lend because most peopleand companies are losing money. That will drive up interest rates, which wouldbe even more devastating for everyone. Central banks will then have to decideif they will let interest rates rise or print a lot of money to buy thosebonds. As they are faced with that choice, they will have no choice but toprint money and buy a lot of government debt to hold interest rates down theway they did in the war years. So now all eyes are on central banks to see ifthey will do that. This is the big paradigm shift that I previously spokeabout.


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