桥水达利欧领英最新文章怒斥造谣者!你怎么知道什么是真的?事实、谣言和恐慌

褚自航 2020-03-19 08:50

编者按:本文来源于褚自航,作者褚自航,创业邦经授权转载。

做为领英的活跃用户,我一直在关注达利欧在领英上的动态。

在流言四起的时候,终于等到了达利欧的最新文章,早上在全网没有找到译文,于是我自己翻译了下,供参考。

原文链接:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-do-you-know-whats-true-facts-rumors-panics-ray-dalio/

我个人翻译的中文译稿如下

你怎么知道什么是真的?事实、谣言和恐慌

作者:瑞达利欧 桥水联席首席投资官,联席主席

中文翻译:褚自航

我们现在正处在一个历史上的非常时期,在这个时期,有关冠状病毒对健康、经济和市场影响的现实情况过于糟糕,以至于准确地去传递这些影响可能会引发恐慌。一些处于知道真相位置的领导人及博学的的研究者们倾向于隐瞒事实,以防止恐慌。这样做的缺点是,当在这个他们本该把自身信誉放在第一位的时期,他们的信誉会受到损害。由于错误的信息,普罗大众也没能做他们本应该做的准备。我认为他们(知道真相的领导人和研究者们)应该披露,这个机会错过了(I think that’s a close call的我翻译的可能不准确。)

在某些情况下,有些人会隐瞒关于自己的不利事实,因为这些不利的事实会导致其他人远离他们。就像其他隐瞒事实的原因一样,这种做法即是可以理解的,但也会在现在这个最需要信誉的时候损害自身信誉,而且这样做使得人们无法根据现实情况采取适当的行动来使局面改善。这比那些试图防止普遍恐慌的政策制定者更糟糕,因为他们把自己的利益置于他人的利益之上,他们所在的位置(比如职业要求)应该是需要先保护他人利益优先于保护自己的利益。这种行为也会导致真相的迷失。

除此之外,社会上也会存在造谣者们,他们为了自己的利益试图煽动恐慌。这从社交媒体上的个人到给主流出版物供稿哗众取宠的作者。他们是最坏的,应该受到严厉的惩罚。

因此这些人的举动,大众几乎不可能知道到底什么是真的。

至于我和你的沟通,我保证我总是以一种完全直截了当的方式和你沟通。我将开诚布公的分享我的所知与所考,即使我这样做有个人风险。虽然我会犯错,但我永远是值得信赖的。这并不意味着我会在社交媒体上讨论一切。例如,我不会透露任何关于桥水与我们客户的关系以及我们在市场上的具体仓位。但你应该知道,如果我说了什么,你可以相信我说的是真的。

至于我现在的看法,我相信冠状病毒对健康、经济和市场的影响将远远大于大多数人现在所传达的信息。例如,企业的利润损失可能高达数万亿美元,因此政府光是保护这些企业就要花掉其中很大一部分钱。此外,光是保护那些将被病毒影响的个人所要耗费的资金数额也将是巨大的。要做到这一点,财政政策制定者(即国家首脑和立法者)将不得不创造大量资金支出和分配,俗称“直升机撒钱”(我来科普下:直升机撒钱指国家中央银行以税收返还或者其他名义直接发货币给家庭或消费者,刺激消费,降低失业率,克服通货紧缩)。这种做法已经在许多方面正在发生了,比如特朗普总统向民众发放1000美元支票的措施。这些钱从哪里来?财政政策制定者是没有这些钱的,因为他们没法印钞(印钞是中央银行的事),所以他们将不得不在放贷方没有多少钱可贷出的时候借那么多钱,再这个大多数人和公司都在亏损时候没钱贷出的时候。这么做将推高利率,利率升高对每个人来说都是更具破坏性的。

届时,各国央行将不得不决定是让利率上升,还是发行大量资金购买这些债券。由于他们面临这种两难选择,他们将别无选择的继续印钞票,购买大量政府债务,以像战争年代那样压低利率。所以现在所有的目光都集中在央行身上,看他们是否会这么做。这也是我之前提到的重大范式转移。(我来科普下: 所谓“范式转移”,是指一个领域里出现新的学术成果,打破了原有的假设或者法则,从而迫使人们对本学科的很多基本理论做出根本性的修正。)

另附上英文原文供参考:

How Do You Know What’s True? Facts, Rumors and Panics

· Published on March19, 2020

Ray Dalio Influencer

Co-ChiefInvestment Officer & Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, L.P.

We are now in one of thosetimes in which the realities of the situation about the health, economic, andmarket impacts of the coronavirus are so bad that conveying them accuratelycould provoke panic. Some leaders and knowledgeable researchers who are in theposition to know are inclined to withhold the facts to prevent that panic. Thedownside of doing that is that it will undermine their credibility at a timewhen them having credibility is most important and people will not do thepreparation that they should do because of the misinformation. While I thinkthey should make the disclosures, I think that’s a close call.

In other cases, some peoplehold back bad facts about themselves because the bad facts about them wouldlead others to run from them. Like the other reason to hold back facts, that isboth understandable and undermines credibility when it is needed most andprevents people from taking appropriate actions in light of the situation. It’sworse than policymakers who are trying to prevent general panic because it putstheir self-interests ahead of the interest of others that they are in aposition which should require others protections ahead of their own. It toocontributes to not knowing what’s true.

Then we have rumormongers whotry to incite panic for their own benefits. They range from individuals onsocial media to writers for prominent publications who feed sensationalism.They are the worst of the worse and should be punished severely.

As a result people ofoperating in this way, it is nearly impossible to know what is true.

As for my communication withyou, I promise that I always communicate with you in a totally straightforwardway. I will share what I know and think freely even though there are personalrisks of my doing that. While I will make mistakes, I will always betrustworthy. That doesn’t not mean that I will discuss everything here onsocial media. For example, I will not disclose anything about Bridgewater’srelationships with our clients and our positions in the markets. But you shouldknow that if I say something, you can believe that it’s true.

As for what I think now, Ibelieve that the health, economic, and market impact of the coronavirus will bemuch greater than most people are now conveying. For example, the profit lossesfor businesses are likely to be many trillions of dollars so that governmentsprotecting just the companies would cost a significant percentage of thatamount of money. Additionally, the amount of money to protect just thoseindividuals who will be devastated by the virus will also be enormous. To dothat, fiscal policymakers (I.e., heads of state and legislators) will have tocreate massive amounts of spending and distributions of money that will bedistributed as “helicopter money.” That is happening now in many ways such asPresident Trump’s $1,000 checks to people. Where will that money come from? Thefiscal policymakers don’t have that money because they don’t create it (thecentral banks create it), so they will have to borrow that enormous amount ofmoney at a time when lenders don’t have much money to lend because most peopleand companies are losing money. That will drive up interest rates, which wouldbe even more devastating for everyone. Central banks will then have to decideif they will let interest rates rise or print a lot of money to buy thosebonds. As they are faced with that choice, they will have no choice but toprint money and buy a lot of government debt to hold interest rates down theway they did in the war years. So now all eyes are on central banks to see ifthey will do that. This is the big paradigm shift that I previously spokeabout.

本文(含图片)为合作媒体授权创业邦转载,不代表创业邦立场,转载请联系原作者。如有任何疑问,请联系editor@cyzone.cn。

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